Israel Launches Massive Military Drill Ahead of Elections, Expert Warns of 1973-Style ‘Miscalculation’
The Israeli military launched large-scale domestic exercises on Sunday to counter surprise border infiltrations and ground raids across northern and central Israel, mobilizing multiple divisions and air assets amid rising regional tensions. The drills, set to continue over 48 hours, came as Israeli security expert Dr. Ehud Eilam invoked the 1973 Yom Kippur War—when Egypt and Syria used exercises to disguise preparations for a surprise attack—warning that escalating tensions could trigger a “dangerous miscalculation.” The large-scale maneuvers involve the Northern Command’s 210th Division, the West Bank Division, and the Central Command’s 98th and 96th divisions, alongside the Israeli Air Force. The exercise, scheduled just ahead of Israel’s elections on October 27, aims to “maintain the forces’ alertness and readiness, strengthen the ability to defend communities, and make full use of aerial capabilities for defense in the area,” according to the IDF.
On Friday, the IDF said troops would practice “a variety of scenarios, including a surprise attack and infiltration into Israeli territory by air and land,” incorporating lessons learned from the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks. “This exercise is mostly about non-state actors with or without Iranian support,” Eilam told Fox News Digital. “It’s aimed at those in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan who might try to infiltrate into Israel or send ground raids. Some are supported by Iran; others are not. It could be planned by Iran or be a local initiative.” He added, “This is a massive exercise, the biggest one in recent years, aimed at protecting the borders. It’s all about making sure that the election day on October 27 will run smoothly. It’s also a message to Iran and others: don’t try to provoke us during election day, so nothing will be disrupted.” The Israeli drills followed a show of force by Tehran days earlier, during which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired roughly 30 ballistic missiles across two distinct weapon classes. That live-fire display highlighted Iranian strike capabilities and sparked renewed alerts about commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the Israeli military to heighten its alert level. During a visit to the IDF’s Central Command on Wednesday, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned that the risk of escalation was growing. “Given the numerous warnings across all fronts and the sensitivity of the current period, the potential for escalation has increased,” Zamir said. Eilam warned that large-scale military exercises carry the “risk of miscalculation,” particularly when troop movements could be mistaken for preparations for an attack. “The classic example in Israel is 1973, when Egypt and Syria conducted a major exercise just before the war that turned into the actual attack,” the analyst said. “Israel and Iran are now watching each other very closely and both sides suspect the other might strike first,” Eilam added, stating that there is the chance of “miscalculation—that each side suspects the other and strikes first by mistake. It’s all about sending messages to each other.”
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