Global Religious Identity Decline: Early Data Reveals Shift from 84% to 77%

Recent findings from the Pew Research Center suggest a significant shift in global religious identity, with early research indicating a drop from 84% of people identifying with a religion in 2010 to 77% in 2020. This provisional data, while sparking conversations about the evolving nature of faith worldwide, also raises questions about how religious identity is measured and understood across different cultural contexts.

Conrad Hackett, head of Pew’s religion demography team, appeared on the BBC’s More or Less programme to explain the factors behind this apparent decline. Hackett emphasized that part of the decrease is due to methodological changes in how religious identity is being assessed, particularly in regions like East Asia where cultural understandings of religion differ significantly from those in the West.

The Complexities of Measuring Religious Identity in East Asia

One of the key factors influencing the decline in global religious identity is how religion is understood and defined in certain countries, especially in East Asia. Hackett pointed out that in China, Japan, and South Korea, the concept of religion as it is understood in English-speaking countries—referring to formal, institutionalized faiths such as Christianity or Islam—is relatively new. For instance, in China, the term “Zongjiao” refers specifically to state-recognized religions like Catholicism, Protestantism, Buddhism, Taoism, and Islam, excluding many traditional folk practices and ancestor veneration, which are still widely practiced.

Hackett noted, “When asked in surveys if they have a religion, only about 10% of people in China identify with state-recognized faiths.” He explained that this figure overlooks the large portion of the population that engages in spiritual or religious customs, such as ancestor worship and traditional rituals, which are not categorized under formal religious identity in Chinese terminology.

The decline in global religious identity, therefore, is partly driven by the decision to adopt a more conservative approach in measuring religiosity in countries like China. Hackett explained that earlier surveys included individuals who practiced traditional customs under a broader definition of religiosity. However, in recent research, Pew has narrowed its focus to measure formal religious identification, leading to a more precise—yet lower—estimate of religious affiliation. According to this narrower measure, about 90% of people in China fall into the “no religion” category.

Understanding Religious Identity Beyond Labels

While the data points to a decline in religious identification, Hackett was careful to highlight the complexity of the relationship between religious identity and religious practice. Simply asking whether someone identifies with a religion does not necessarily capture the depth of their spiritual life, practices, or beliefs. Many individuals may engage in religious activities or hold strong faith-based beliefs without formally identifying with a religion.

“In many cases, those who identify with a religion are more likely to participate in religious activities,” Hackett explained. “However, we also see cases where people who don’t identify with any religion still engage in practices such as attending religious services or celebrating religious holidays.”

Conversely, some who identify with a religion may not actively practice or adhere to its traditional doctrines. This disparity between religious identification and practice further complicates the narrative of declining religiosity, as it suggests that the decline in formal religious affiliation may not fully capture the nuances of global spirituality.

Looking Ahead: Pew’s Upcoming Research

Pew Research Center’s upcoming studies are set to explore the trends in religious identity more deeply, analyzing changes between 2010 and 2020. Hackett acknowledged that while the global decline in religious identification is a significant finding, the underlying reasons for this shift are complex and multifaceted. In addition to changes in how religion is measured, cultural shifts, the rise of secularism, and generational changes in attitudes toward faith all play a role in shaping the evolving religious landscape.

One of the key areas of focus for future research will be understanding how these trends vary by region. While East Asia has seen a particularly sharp drop in religious identification due to cultural and definitional factors, other regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, may show different trends. Pew’s continued research will also delve into how people value faith in their daily lives, beyond formal identification, and how this impacts global patterns of belief and practice.

A Global Shift in Faith and Identity

The provisional data from Pew Research Center paints a picture of a world where fewer people are formally identifying with a religion. However, as Hackett’s insights reveal, this decline is not necessarily an indication of a world turning away from spirituality. Instead, it reflects a changing understanding of what it means to be religious and how cultural, social, and regional factors influence the ways people engage with faith.

As Pew’s future research unfolds, the global community will gain a clearer understanding of how religion, identity, and spirituality continue to evolve in an increasingly interconnected and diverse world.