Ceasefire on the Brink: Israel and Hamas Trade Blame as Fragile Truce Hangs by a Thread

Three weeks into a fragile ceasefire agreement, Israel and Hamas are locked in a heated exchange of accusations, each claiming the other has breached the delicate truce. The deal, which has so far seen the staggered release of hostages and prisoners, now stands on precarious ground, with threats of resumed warfare looming large.

A Truce Under Siege

The ceasefire, brokered by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, was designed as a phased process. Hamas has so far released 16 of the 33 hostages scheduled for this phase, while Israel has freed 656 Palestinian prisoners out of an agreed-upon total nearing 2,000. However, tensions flared after Hamas announced a delay in the next hostage release, citing Israeli violations of the agreement.

Israel swiftly countered the claim, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning that if hostages are not freed as scheduled, the ceasefire will collapse. “If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will return to intense fighting until Hamas is completely defeated,” Netanyahu declared in a stark video statement.

Hamas’ Allegations: A Breach of Trust?

Hamas contends that Israel has failed to uphold its end of the bargain. The militant group accuses Israeli forces of targeting Palestinians with gunfire in Gaza, obstructing the return of displaced civilians, and restricting humanitarian aid from entering the besieged enclave. Additionally, Hamas claims that Israel has delayed the entry of critical medical supplies, fuel, and rubble-removal equipment, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

The Gaza Health Ministry reported that 92 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli military operations since the ceasefire took effect, raising concerns that the truce may be eroding faster than anticipated.

A diplomatic source involved in the negotiations revealed that international mediators, including the United Nations, Qatar, and Egypt, had attempted to deliver temporary shelters to Gaza but were reportedly blocked by Israeli authorities.

Israel’s Retort: “A Complete Violation”

Israeli officials have dismissed Hamas’ allegations, instead accusing the group of breaching the ceasefire by delaying hostage releases. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz labeled Hamas’ postponement “a complete violation of the ceasefire agreement.”

Netanyahu convened an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss the deteriorating situation, directing the Israeli military to heighten its state of alert and prepare for all possible scenarios, including a full-scale return to combat.

The situation remains tense, as Hamas maintains that Israel has time to rectify its alleged violations. “We affirm our commitment to the terms of the agreement as long as the occupation commits to them,” Hamas’ military wing spokesperson Abu Obeida stated.

Trump’s Take: “Let All Hell Break Out”

U.S. President Donald Trump, whose envoy played a key role in brokering the ceasefire, has taken a hardline stance. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump warned that if Hamas fails to release all hostages by Saturday, Israel should abandon the phased approach and escalate its response.

“If all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock, I think it’s an appropriate time to say cancel it and let all hell break out,” Trump declared. When pressed on what he meant by “all hell,” he offered a cryptic response: “You’ll find out, and they’ll find out—Hamas will find out.”

Trump also cast doubt on the survival of many hostages, stating, “I think a lot of the hostages are dead.” This grim assertion, while unconfirmed, aligns with Israeli intelligence reports suggesting that more than 30 hostages may have perished in captivity.

A Ceasefire on Borrowed Time?

The question of whether the ceasefire can hold remains uncertain. The first truce in November 2023 lasted just a week before breaking down. This current agreement, painstakingly negotiated over a year, is designed in three phases—but only the first phase is partially complete.

While hostages and prisoners have been exchanged, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire. The United Nations has reported “overwhelming destruction of homes and communities,” with displaced Palestinians facing severe shortages of food, water, and shelter. Meanwhile, Israeli forces continue to hold strategic positions in Gaza, including along the borders with Egypt and Israel.

Despite these challenges, negotiations for the second and third phases of the agreement have barely begun. Netanyahu’s administration, under mounting domestic pressure, has hesitated to move forward, with some coalition members threatening to abandon the government if Israel does not resume full-scale military operations.

As the Saturday deadline approaches, Qatari and Egyptian mediators scramble to prevent a complete collapse of the ceasefire. However, with both sides standing firm in their accusations and demands, the likelihood of sustained peace appears increasingly dim. The fragile ceasefire now teeters on the edge—one misstep away from a return to all-out war.